Monthly Archives: August 2009

Is Scoble Right About a $5 Billion Twitter Valuation? I'd Bet Money on It

Posted on August 30, 2009 by Ben Parr| 10 Comments

I can’t help myself. I need to say something about a post by well-known early adopter Robert Scoble on Twitter being worth $5 Billion.

First, let me summarize Scoble’s post. Really simply, it boils down to this: businesses. Twitter has seduced thousands of businesses to use it as their promotional tool, even over Facebook, and Twitter isn’t losing those companies anytime soon. With thousands of potential paying businesses, Twitter could generate significant revenue to justify a $5 billion valuation.

No go pro argument comes without a con, though, and my favorite counter argument comes from my friend Alex Wilhelm on TechGeist:

I fully agree with Robert that Twitter will not have trouble monetizing. I also agree that Twitter is kicking Facebook’s ass in the business domain. To think otherwise is foolish. Twitter is getting bigger, and it is not going away. Robert is right, correct, and dead on until we reach his financial numbers.

Essentially Alex plays the P/E game, where he estimates the potential revenue of Twitter, assumes a very high P/E (Price/Earnings ratio) of 100, and concludes that “at $125 per business per month, you need 38,666 paying businesses” to justify $5 billion.

Usually I take a middle ground, but in this case, I’m going to side with Robert Scoble, with one exception, which I will address at the end. Scoble doesn’t give out any numbers for his $5 Billion valuation, while Alex does. However, Alex ignores all of Twitter’s other potential revenue sources. A few:

- Twitter.com Advertising
- Mobile Advertising
- Twitter Search Advertising
- A Twitter version of AdSense
- Media Deals

It’s late, so I’m clearly blanking out on a half dozen other business models. Twitter Search advertising and a Twitter version of AdSense interest me the most, and you’ll probably see Mashable articles on both subjects at some point.

On top of this, I think Alex ignores the potential of individuals purchasing premium accounts. What, you don’t think Robert Scoble or Ashton Kutcher wouldn’t pay for some detailed analytics? Dream on.

So one last time, let’s do the numbers. Let’s assume a P/E of 100, like Alex does. Let’s assume 10,000 businesses and 10,000 individuals pay for Twitter premium accounts, and that it averages out to $100 a month:

100 x $100 x (10,000 x 2 x 12) = $2.4 Billion

Advertising gets trickier, but if you get 4 million clicks on a Twitter ad network worth $0.50 each, you’d already make up most of the difference.

Let me be clear: Twitter is not worth $5 Billion yet. But Twitter could get to that valuation with an advertising/subscription account combination. At the very least, I’d roll the dice on it.

Oh, and if your curious about my one exception, it is this: Facebook can still win over businesses that have chosen Twitter as their promotional tool. More on that in the future.

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Posted in Internet Tools

Top 7 Reasons to Donate to the Summer of Social Good

Posted on August 26, 2009 by Ben Parr| 7 Comments


This summer, Mashable (where I am editor) has been part of a major charity drive: The Summer of Social Good. It’s been a huge initiative on our part to use the power of social media and social networks to do some good for the world. The money raised will go to four charities:

- Livestrong
- Oxfam America
- The Humane Society
- World Wildlife Foundation

So far, the Summer of Social Good has raised over $30,000, In two days, the closing event and conference will take place and the Summer of Social Good will end.

That’s why I am going to make the case for donating by this Friday, August 28th. I could list a million reasons why you should donate – and you can come up with a million more – but these seven reasons really call out to me, and I hope they call out to you. Please donate to the summer of social good.



1. Because We Have an Obligation to the World


We’ve taken so much from this world, it only seems natural that we’re obligated to give back to help it. There are millions of people that aren’t even fortunate enough to have a hot dinner, not to mention a computer and an Internet connection. If we don’t take care of each other and the planet we live on, we’re in for serious trouble.

2. Because It’s So Easy to Do

The web’s made it easier than ever to give back. PayPal, electronic banking, and social apps (i.e. Causes). Or, in the case of the Summer of Social Good, widgets:

Yes, all you have to do is click “donate now.” I will give you a strong thumbs-up (or a mini-party) if you do.

3. Because You’d Be Donating to Four Great Charities That Create Major Social Change

If you have never heard of LiveStrong, the Humane Society, Oxfam America, or the World Wildlife Foundation, here’s your quick charitable education. Each cause is beyond worthy of your support:

1. Livestrong: More than 12 million worldwide are diagnosed w/ cancer and 8mil will die from the disease each year. We will end the stigma of cancer and turn cancer victims into cancer survivors, build an international grassroots movement, take cancer from isolation to collaboration and ,together with world leaders, will transform cancer from obscurity to a global priority.

2. Humane Society: Established in 1954, The HSUS seeks a humane and sustainable world for all animals—a world that will also benefit people. We are America’s mainstream force against cruelty, exploitation and neglect, as well as the most trusted voice extolling the human-animal bond. Our mission statement: Celebrating Animals, Confronting Cruelty.

3. Oxfam America: One in six people worldwide now suffers from chronic hunger. More than 2.5 billion people live in poverty, struggling to survive on less than $2 a day—and the numbers are growing. But we at Oxfam believe that it doesn’t have to be this way. If we work together, we can turn the numbers in the other direction. Along with individuals and local groups in over 100 countries, we save lives, help people overcome poverty, and fight for social justice.

4. WWF: Our environment and earth’s future is in great danger. It is estimated that, over 75% of the world’s marine stocks are currently over fished, we lose 36 football fields of rainforest on the earth every minute and we will possibly lose up to 10,000 species this year. NOW is the time for action. WWF needs your help to strengthen global awareness of these issues and ensure that the best possible solutions are implemented for a sustainable future.

You’re saving the world by helping these charities. Period.

4. Because You’re Proving Social Media Can Change the World

Ever hear someone dismiss Facebook or Twitter as dumb wastes of time? This is your chance to prove them wrong.

The Social Media Smackdown and Twestival have been great demonstrations of the power of social media in changing the world. If you haven’t had the chance to show the world that social media really is a driving force in our society with these charities, then now’s your chance with a donation to the Summer of Social Good.

5. Because You Don’t Have to Even Donate Money to Help

Wait, what?! Isn’t the Summer of Social Good a charity drive? Yes, yes it is, but that does not mean you can’t help these great charities via social media in other ways. In fact, my colleague Sharon Feder highlighted 5 great ways to help the Summer of Social Good. I’m going to summarize the first four right now:

1. Donate.

2. Retweet: Ford Motors is donating $1.50 for each retweet of Top 10 YouTube Videos for Social Good and $2.00 for each retweet of HOW TO: Support Social Good on Your Blog. 30 seconds and you’ll have helped donate $3.50 to charity.

3. Watch a Video: Ford is once again displaying its generosity by donating $1 for every video view of the Ford Fiesta Movement video. Watch a video, save the planet.

4. Attend the Summer of Social Good Conference This Friday.

6. Because You Can Help Us Understand The Web’s Impact on Charitable Giving

Social media and charitable giving have been uncharted waters, and we’ve learned a lot from running this campaign. However, your input, thoughts, and donations on the Social Good survey will help improve charitable giving on the web for years to come.

7. Because We Need You





I hope you will support me and the Mashable team in our efforts to change the world for the better. I cannot even begin to explain my passion for making this world better. I hope you have a similar passion, no matter how you choose to make your mark.

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Posted in Entrepreneurship, My musings, Social Media, Tech

NEW: Ben Parr's Posterous Experiment

Posted on August 22, 2009 by Ben Parr| 5 Comments


If you’ve been following my Twitter account, you might have noticed some new Post.ly links, pictures of cute animals, and even a photostream of the Congressional Roundtable I attended yesterday.

That’s because I have set up a new, complementary blog to BenParr.com, powered by Posterous, a YCombinator-funded company. The purpose of the Posterous blog is primarily to share photos and the little gems that I find on the web.

It’s a more lighthearted blog – thus why I am going to consistently post pictures of cute animals to lighten your day. But when I am on the go, I will use it over TwitPic or YFrog to share what I am doing or who I am meeting with. I hope it better organizes what I’m doing and gives me a new avenue to share the best things I find on the web.

BenParr.com will still be my primary blog. I will continue to post my insights, my interviews, and my projects on this blog. I will post commentary that I don’t place on Mashable here. In fact, you will soon see an increase in blog posts on BenParr.com due to a new project/experiment I’m hoping to announce this week.

If you’re interested in keeping up my Posterous posts/photos, you can subscribe here. I also suggest subscribing to BenParr.com because there’s a lot of new and useful content coming soon.

- Ben

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Posted in Internet Tools, My musings, Social Media

The Importance of a Strong Online Presence [The Zed Shaw Case]

Posted on August 5, 2009 by Ben Parr| 6 Comments

Zed Shaw ImageToday I was reading through my usual news sources on the train when I stumbled across this article by Zed Shaw on Hacker News. Aptly titled “I’m Moving To San Francisco, I Need A Job,” the well-known programmer (and nemesis to Ruby on Rails developers everywhere) announces that he’s moving from NYC and wants to be situated with a job and a place by September 1st.

For the normal individual, if he or she made that type of post on his or her personal blog, nobody would hear, and thus nobody would listen. But that won’t be the case for Zed Shaw. He’s going to get interviews every day he’s in SF and he’s going to have the leverage to choose a company and a job that suits him – not to mention compensation.

So why can he do this? Why does he have this type of leverage? Two comments in the Hacker News thread caught my attention:

This is why having a well-known online presence is important.

It’s worth noting that it’s an online presence backed by serious code, which makes Zed worth listening to (and hiring). It seems like many online presences have the attitude without supplying the code.

  • Zed has strong visibility in programming and technology circles. His up-front nature, his blogging, and his wit have all earned him an online persona.
  • Zed can back it up with some damn good code (*cough*Mongrel*cough*


His abilities are the foundation of his online image, but his communication skills cannot be underestimated either. Combined, they allow him to do this sort of thing. And there are plenty of other people who can do the same thing if they need to get a job, recruit new employees, etc.

I cannot stress enough the importance of building an online presence. Yes, it can be egotistical, but only if you let that happen. You may think it’s not important, but when you’re handed a pink slip without a large network to tap into, you’ll be regretting it.

I’ll write a more detailed post on building your online presence in the future, but in the meantime, keep networking, keep writing, keep tweeting, and stay relevant.

Oh, and most importantly, build something of value. There is a reason people listen to Zed, after all.

[Image thanks to Adewale Oshineye on Flickr]

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Posted in Business, Entrepreneurship, My musings, Social Media