The Spectacular Rise and Fall of Groupon(‘s Stock Price)

The day before the Groupon IPO, a friend not in the tech industry asked me what I thought about the IPO. “Do you foresee the company’s stock going up a lot?” he asked me.

I had a four word response: “Down. Bad stock. Toxic.”

By the looks of it, my market prediction has come true.

Look: I’m rooting for Groupon to succeed. I want Chicago, my home city, to become a major tech hub. A successful Groupon would go a long way towards bringing money, innovation and talent to the Midwest. But I stand by my Social Analyst column on Groupon and the entire daily deals industry:

“There are still a lot of daily deals startups in the market right now. My day isn’t complete without at least three pitching me for a story on Mashable. But while more daily deals startups may be getting off the ground, the big players are clearly realizing that this business is being commoditized by intense competition and fatigue by consumers and local businesses. Fifty-two percent of U.S. consumers say they feel overwhelmed by the number of daily deals emails hitting their inboxes.”

Groupon Now hasn’t taken off the way the company wanted it to, and the antics of its CEO aren’t helping. I really, really hope they can mastermind a turnaround, but my prediction is that Groupon isn’t even close to the bottom yet.

(Side note: I’m not a professional stock analyst. Don’t depend on me for your stock picks.)